Bitcoin has staged a sharp recovery, climbing toward $80,000 and prompting Standard Chartered to warn that its $100,000 year-end forecast may now be too conservative.
BTC rose roughly 24% over the past week, reaching about $79,500 on Aug. 21 before pulling back. The move marks a major turnaround from June, when Bitcoin fell to around $58,000 and spent much of the summer trading between $60,000 and $65,000.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, now believes Bitcoin could retest its previous all-time high of roughly $126,000 before the end of 2026 if the recovery continues.
The bank has not officially replaced its $100,000 year-end target with $126,000. Instead, Kendrick described the previous record as a potential upside level if the current momentum continues. He said there is now a risk his $100,000 forecast could prove too low.
Standard Chartered Forecasts Bitcoin Will Retest All-Time High
Bitcoin breaks out of its summer range
The latest rally is significant because Bitcoin has finally moved beyond the range that contained it for much of the summer.
After its June selloff, BTC repeatedly failed to hold above $65,000. The cryptocurrency eventually broke through that resistance, moved above $70,000 and then accelerated toward $80,000 within days.
Bitcoin has risen more than $17,000 from its June low, according to Kendrick’s assessment. The move has also shifted attention away from the market’s previous support levels and toward the possibility of a broader recovery.
Standard Chartered’s latest view is notable because the bank had become more cautious earlier this year. In February, it cut its 2026 Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000, citing weak ETF flows, tougher macroeconomic conditions, reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and changes in investor positioning.
Bitcoin ultimately avoided the deeper decline the bank had warned about and has since recovered sharply.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance on Aug. 23 (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Short liquidations fuel the move
The speed of the latest rally has been partly driven by traders positioned for further declines.
Kendrick said short liquidations were a major force behind Bitcoin’s advance. As BTC moved higher, traders betting on lower prices were forced to close losing positions, requiring them to buy Bitcoin back. That additional demand pushed prices higher and triggered further liquidations.
More than $4 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated during the latest surge, highlighting how heavily the market had been positioned for a decline.
This created a classic short squeeze. However, forced buying alone cannot support a rally indefinitely. Once those positions have been closed, Bitcoin needs fresh demand to keep moving higher.
ETF inflows become crucial
That makes U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs an important factor for the next stage of the rally.
Kendrick said recovering ETF inflows could provide another source of demand. Institutional interest had weakened earlier in the year, contributing to pressure on Bitcoin, but flows have since started improving.
The difference is important. Short liquidations create temporary buying pressure, while ETF inflows can provide a more sustained source of demand.
If institutional investors continue buying after the short squeeze fades, it would strengthen the argument that Bitcoin’s breakout reflects a broader change in sentiment rather than simply traders being forced out of bearish positions.
Kendrick also pointed to relatively low open interest in the crypto market. Lower open interest leaves room for investors to rebuild positions as confidence returns, without immediately creating the crowded leverage that can make rallies vulnerable to sharp liquidation cascades.
Can Bitcoin reach $126,000?
Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of roughly $126,000 was reached in October 2025. The cryptocurrency subsequently fell 54% from peak to trough, eventually reaching about $58,000 in June.
Kendrick believes the recovery could eventually carry BTC back toward that record, potentially accelerating after Oct. 6, around the anniversary of last year’s peak.
The date is not being presented as a guaranteed catalyst. Rather, Kendrick sees the period afterward as a potential point when investors begin looking beyond the previous cycle’s peak and reassessing Bitcoin’s longer-term direction.
From roughly $79,500, Bitcoin would need to gain about 58% to reach $126,000. That is a significant move, particularly after a weekly gain of more than 20%.
The next test is holding the breakout
For now, Bitcoin’s biggest challenge is proving that its latest gains can hold.
A sustained move above $70,000 would strengthen the case that the former resistance level has become support. A break and hold above $80,000 could then put $100,000 firmly back in focus.
The risks remain. Bitcoin is still sensitive to ETF flows, interest rates, liquidity and broader risk appetite. A reversal in institutional demand or worsening financial conditions could quickly put pressure on prices.
For Standard Chartered, however, the outlook has clearly improved.
The bank’s official year-end forecast remains $100,000, but Kendrick’s latest assessment suggests that target may no longer capture Bitcoin’s full upside potential. If ETF demand continues to recover, leverage remains manageable and BTC holds above its recently reclaimed levels, a retest of the $126,000 record could become increasingly realistic.
After months of trading below $70,000, Bitcoin is once again close enough to its previous high for the market to seriously consider a new record before the end of the year.
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