Iranian officials in Pakistan for US talks, possible ceasefire extension

Iranian officials arrived in Pakistan for US talks, suggesting a possible ceasefire extension. The market for a ceasefire extension by April 21 is at 67% YES.

FM Araghchi and Speaker Ghalibaf are both in Pakistan, and their presence pushed ceasefire extension odds higher initially. But the April 21 market dropped from 86% to 67% over the past 24 hours. Odds for Trump announcing the end of the ceasefire by April 21 sit at 15.5% YES, up from 6% yesterday.

The broader market for ending military operations against Iran by April 30 fell to 37.5% YES, down from 59% yesterday. The order book requires $1,566 in depth to move the price five points, meaning large trades are driving much of the action.

Traders are weighing the ceasefire extension against potential military escalation. At 38¢, a YES share for cessation of military operations by April 30 pays $1, a 2.63x return. For that to pay off, traders need to believe in real diplomatic progress within 12 days.

Watch for updates from the Islamabad talks, especially any announcement of a direct meeting between Trump and Iran’s President. That kind of development could move these markets fast.

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